Nickel Strengthens and Chromium Weakens on News Support, Stainless Steel Spot Prices and Costs Rise in Tandem [SMM Analysis]

This week, stainless steel spot prices rose in tandem with production costs, narrowing losses for stainless steel mills. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, cash cost losses calculated based on current raw material prices reached 2.46% this week; when calculated using raw material inventory costs, the cash cost loss ratio remained at 1.66%.

On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices stopped falling and rebounded significantly this week. Influenced by market expectations of tightening raw material supply due to potential stricter nickel ore approval procedures in Indonesia, coupled with a surge in SHFE nickel and SS futures, high-grade NPI offers rose sharply. Additional support came from purchases by some traders and small-to-medium steel mills. By Friday, the price of high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade increased by 24 yuan/mtu, settling at 904 yuan/mtu. In the stainless steel scrap market, a significant rise in SS futures drove up spot prices for stainless steel finished products, and high-grade NPI prices also increased. Stainless steel scrap maintained a better economic advantage compared to high-grade NPI, leading to a price increase this week. By Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in east China rose by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest offer around 9,250 yuan/mt.

On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices pulled back again this week. Although the January tender prices from Tsingshan and TISCO were slightly lower than the previous month, the decrease was less than market expectations. Buoyed by market sentiment, prices saw a brief, minor rebound. However, ferrochrome production remained high, and producers, having limited profit margins, had no clear production cut plans, making it difficult to alter the loose supply situation. Concurrently, expected production cuts in the stainless steel market and the persistent year-end supply-demand imbalance remained. By Friday, the price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia fell by 50 yuan/mt (50% metal content) from the previous period, settling at 8,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content).